With the rise of TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and Instagram “finfluencers,” as well as tools like ChatGPT and AI-driven stock analysis, stock picking has never been more popular. Many everyday investors now spend hours researching “hot” stocks or following talking heads like Jim Cramer for the next big pick.
With US Markets up roughly 25% in 2023 & 2024, and currently up about 14% year-to-date in 2025 – it’s easy to feel confident or even invincible. Over the past three years, almost anyone could have closed their eyes and thrown a dart to choose a couple of stocks that have had massive gains… is this sustainable?
A long-term study by Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) analyzed the performance of individual stocks in the U.S. market from 1927–2024.
On average, there were about 3,000 publicly traded stocks at any given time.
When looking at 20-year rolling periods: Only 18% of all stocks both survived and outperformed the market. In other words, if history is any guide, the odds of picking a stock today that both endures and beats the market over the next 20 years are relatively low.
Many investors assume today’s dominant companies — NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, and Google — are untouchable. But history is full of cautionary tales.
General Electric (GE) was a top-five company in the S&P 500 for nearly three decades before its dramatic fall, losing 44.8% in 2017 and another 56.6% in 2018. Once-giant names like BlackBerry, Lehman Brothers, Sears, WorldCom, General Motors and Wachovia were also considered “too big to fail” — until they did.
No company, no matter how innovative or profitable today, is immune from change.
We’re not saying you shouldn’t own the big names — but owning them as part of a diversified portfolio is far different than betting your future on a handful of stocks.
At Integra Wealth, we build portfolios using broadly diversified, low-cost funds across multiple markets:
• Large and small U.S. companies
• U.S. value stocks
• International developed markets
• Emerging market companies
By spreading investments across thousands of companies and multiple regions, we reduce the risk of any single stock (or country) determining your financial outcome.
It’s incredibly hard — if not impossible — to consistently beat the market by picking individual stocks over the long run. Diversification remains one of the most reliable strategies for growing wealth and protecting your financial plan.
Contact Integra Wealth if you would like to work with Fee-Only Financial Advisors in Cary, NC or Fee-Only Financial Advisors in Chattanooga, TN.
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